This is a fun defensive battle that comes down to which offense can make a play. To me, Zimmer's defense is playing at a high level. I love watching them on tape. It's a combination of great coaching and really good plays. I think you can say the same thing about Houston. They do it differently. We're going to see three of the best tackles in the league with Geno Atkins for the Bengals and J.J. Watt and Antonio Smith for the Texans. Those three guys are special.
If you're a Cincinnati fan, you're trying to hope to stop their run game a little bit and force Matt Schaub into the shotgun. They are nowhere near as good a team. They're an under-center-run-the-football-play-action team. If you can force them out of it … and that's what has happened the last four weeks. They've gotten behind, they've been behind in down and distance. Schaub's not that kind of guy.
The Texans have a run game that's more explosive. The Bengals have a solid run game. The Texans have a veteran quarterback, but he's not going to beat you just sitting in shotgun. And the Bengals have a young quarterback trying to figure it out a little bit, but he's a smart, talented kid.
I think the Bengals offensive struggles come down to two things. They need to run it efficiently. They don't need to run it 30 times a game, but if you're running it only 15 or 16 times, you better be averaging four or 4.5 per carry. And you can't get your quarterback sacked 46 times, and I'm a big believer in the pass protection starts with the quarterback. Andy Dalton's been at fault for some of it. The offensive line has been beaten cleanly on some one-on-one situations, and there are a few times the receivers haven't protected him.
Any team that doesn't double J.J. Watt is asking for trouble. When they go to sub-packages, Watt and Smith are inside. If you think you're going to get away with not doubling Watt and/or Antonio Smith, you're going to have a problem. I would think Cincinnati is going into this game with some idea of helping their guards.
The Texans could always count on their offense and now they can't. With Schaub at quarterback they've scored three offensive touchdowns in the last four and a half games. Schaub has one touchdown pass in the last four games. Against Minnesota in Week 15, I was never more sure about the Texans beating a team and they must have felt the same way because they got their butts kicked, 23-6. It's the first time since 2006 when David Carr was their quarterback that they didn't score an offensive touchdown. They've got three offensive linemen in the Pro Bowl, but their line has been a problem. Schaub got sacked 15 times in the first 12 games and 12 in the last four.
They've had a revolving door at both right guard and right tackle. And you know what they say, if you have four you have none. When they let right tackle Eric Winston go in free agency, the guy that was going to replace him, Rashad Butler, blew out his shoulder in camp and never played and Derek Newton, a seventh-rounder from last year, has played most of the time there. They're rotating two rookies at right guard in Ben Jones and Brandon Brooks, so I would expect Atkins to have a big day.
Their pass defense has hurt them and it hasn't been their cornerbacks, it's been their safeties. Former Bengals cornerback Johnathan Joseph had a great year last year, but he hasn't been as good this year because of injuries. He's got a pulled groin and hamstring and he's still been good and he can turn and run for 20 yards, but he can't turn and run for 50. The other corner, Kareem Jackson, has been almost as good.
But they have trouble in their two-deep coverage, when they put safety Glover Quin in the box and bring Quintin Demps off the bench to put him back there with Danieal Manning. Against the Colts twice in the last month Demps made a mental error on the 61-yard TD to T.Y. Hilton and last week's 70-yarder. I would think the Bengals would be crazy if they don't keep sending A.J. Green deep as much as they can.
Last year they gave up 18 TD passes. This year it's 29. And of the 54 passes of at least 20 yards they've allowed, 13 have gone for TDs for an average of 33.5 yards, second-worst in the league next to Detroit.
These are two teams on offense that haven't done much lately, which makes you think a defensive play will be the difference. We know what kind of defensive play the Texans got last year that propelled J.J. Watt into this season doing what he's done. Somebody who gets in the quarterback's face and catches a point-blank interception and returns it for a touchdown, I expect that would win it.
Matt Schaub is a good guy. The dude has done a a lot of work. He's been waiting for this opportunity. Last year he missed out on the playoffs and I believe it means the world to him. I've talked to him this week. He's trying to stay level, keep the same approach.
I don't mean it in an offensive way, but he's a system quarterback. He needs not only to play well, but he needs things around him to go well. If they can't run play-action that sets him up for the bootleg and be in down and distances equally believable they'll be running or passing, he's not going to fare as well. It's more like the offense has to keep him up and boost him up to play well. I don’t think he picks up the offense and makes them play well.
I will be surprised if the winner scores more than 23 and there's not a defensive play that figures in a large way. If I'm the Texans I wouldn't want it to come down to a big kick from Shayne Graham from a great distance. He missed one last week from 52.I don’t know if he's gotten any better under pressure. I don't like the idea.
Most everyone seems to think it's going to be a one-play game and it does have all the feel of the march into Pittsburgh that got the Bengals into the playoffs with a 13-10 win two weeks ago. The game-changer that day didn't show until 59:46 had been played and Bengals safety Reggie Nelson picked off Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
Then, as now, the sense is that defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer and his guys are going to pitch another eminently winnable game and it is up the offense to get something like the 21.8 points it averaged in December for a defense that has been smoking in the last eight games of the season in allowing just 12 points per game.
But the offense can't play like it did in December. A total of 61 yards rushing in the last two games isn’t going to cut it. People are getting on Schaub in Houston for the Texans first offense scoring just six TDs in December. But the Bengals also scored only six. That won’t cut it in January.
Yet this is a favorable matchup for the Bengals. Zimmer, in the Belichick mold, is brilliant at making offenses one-dimensional and if the Bengals take away the run and Schaub's ability to play-action, the Texans are in trouble. Although Schaub's passer rating is still a solid 84 when he's not in play-action, it's still not triple digits, which Pro Football Focus says he is throwing after faking a run.
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